Introduction

When creating an event Risk Assessment, one of the most common questions we hear is, “But how do I know what to include?”

The answer lies in one key phrase that underpins health and safety thinking and that is “reasonably foreseeable.”

It is a term that can feel vague, yet understanding it is fundamental to good risk management.

At Safe Events Global, we help event organisers and safety teams move beyond the jargon and focus on practical foresight, which means identifying what might realistically go wrong and planning to prevent it.

This article demystifies what “reasonably foreseeable” means within event Risk Assessments and explains how to apply it with confidence to your own planning process.

Safe Events Global advisors on site applying reasonably foreseeable risk thinking at a festival

What Does “Reasonably Foreseeable” Mean?

In simple terms, a reasonably foreseeable risk is any hazard that a competent person, with relevant knowledge and experience, could predict might occur in the circumstances of your event.

You are not expected to anticipate every theoretical danger, only those that are realistic given your event’s design, location, audience and activities.

For example:

  • It is reasonably foreseeable that wet weather could make grass surfaces slippery during an outdoor festival.
  • It is not reasonably foreseeable that a meteorite will strike your stage.

The key word is “reasonable.”

You are expected to think practically, not imaginatively.

The Legal Foundation

The concept of reasonable foreseeability is rooted in common law principles and is reflected across both UK and Irish health and safety legislation. It is similar around the world.

In Ireland, the primary legislation is the Safety, Health and Welfare at Work Act 2005, which places a duty on employers, event organisers and anyone in control of a place of work to identify hazards and manage risks “so far as is reasonably practicable.”

This means you must take steps that are proportionate to the likelihood and potential severity of harm, based on what a competent person could reasonably anticipate.

Similarly, in the UK, the Health and Safety at Work etc. Act 1974 adopts the same expectation.

You are not required to eliminate every theoretical risk, but you are expected to recognise hazards that could realistically occur given the nature of your event and all that comes with it.

Foreseeability in both jurisdictions as well as globally is therefore about balance:

  • not dismissing credible risks that have precedent
  • not overcomplicating your assessment with extremely unlikely scenarios
  • taking proportionate action when a risk is predictable and preventable

If you are responsible for an event, your duty is to show that you anticipated and managed reasonably foreseeable risks with appropriate and proportionate controls.

Competent Professionals

A Risk Assessment is not simply a form, but a professional judgement about hazards, likelihood, impact and the measures needed to keep people safe.

For events, where temporary structures, live crowds, tight timelines and multi-agency inputs all come together, the quality of that judgement is critical.

For this reason, Risk Assessments for events should only be completed by competent, experienced and appropriately insured professionals.

This is not just recommended practice, but actually a legal expectation.

In Ireland, the Safety, Health and Welfare at Work Act 2005 requires that anyone carrying out a Risk Assessment must be competent to do so.

Competence in law means having the necessary training, experience, knowledge and other qualities to perform the task safely and effectively.

Event organisers have a duty to appoint competent persons to safety related tasks, including Risk Assessment.

In the UK, the same principle applies through the Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1999, which require employers and organisers to ensure that Risk Assessments are completed by someone with the skills, experience and understanding to assess the specific work activity.

Competence in event Risk Assessment typically includes:

  • experience of live event environments
  • knowledge of event safety legislation and recognised industry standards
  • formal training in Risk Assessment or event safety management
  • understanding of crowd behaviour, temporary structures and emergency planning
  • the ability to judge proportional controls
  • appropriate professional indemnity and public liability insurance

Without these, Risk Assessments can become generic or inaccurate.

A poorly constructed assessment may fail to identify a reasonably foreseeable hazard, which can increase legal exposure and operational risk.

Engaging a qualified event safety consultant or risk specialist helps ensure the assessment is credible, proportionate and aligned with recognised good practice. It also reassures organisers, contractors and authorities that risks have been identified and managed to an acceptable level.

Competence is not optional and should be a core part of the organiser’s legal responsibilities and the foundation for a safe, well managed event.

Applying the Principle in Event Risk Assessments

When conducting a Risk Assessment, start by breaking down your event into its individual activities and environments. For each one, ask:

  1. What could happen?
  2. How likely is it to happen?
  3. How serious could it be?
  4. Is it reasonably foreseeable?

If you can answer “yes” to the final question, then it belongs in your Risk Assessment.

For instance:

  • If your event involves crowds, foresee the risk of crowd surges, slips or congestion.
  • If your site includes temporary structures, foresee risks related to installation, weather loading and collapse.
  • If your event is open to the public, foresee issues such as lost children, intoxication or antisocial behaviour.

These are all foreseeable because they have happened at similar events before and can be anticipated through experience and evidence.

Using Evidence and Experience

Foreseeability is about informed judgement, not guesswork.

When assessing risks, use:

  • historical data, including previous incidents at similar events
  • recognised industry guidance, such as The Purple Guide or HSE event safety resources
  • professional experience within your team
  • site-specific knowledge based on inspections and conversations with contractors

This approach creates a defensible Risk Assessment i.e. one that reflects both evidence and expertise.

If you are an experienced Crowd and Event Safety professional, then you should be able to trust your instinct in this regard.

You’ve worked on event sites. You’ve done Risk Assessments before. You know what is reasonably foreseeable and what is theoretical.

When Is a Risk Not Reasonably Foreseeable?

A risk that is so remote, unpredictable or unprecedented that it cannot reasonably be expected to occur does not need to be listed.

For example:

  • An unexpected freak tornado striking a concert in Ireland is not reasonably foreseeable.
  • A strong gust of wind affecting stage banners is.
  • A large group of drunk heavy metal music fans arriving to an EDM festival in the Middle East is not reasonably foreseeable.
  • A sandstorm is.

Overloading your Risk Assessment with highly unlikely scenarios can dilute focus and make it harder to manage the real ones.

Defending Your Judgement

A good test is to ask yourself, “If this incident happened, could I justify why it was not included in the Risk Assessment?”

If your reasoning is credible, such as no evidence of similar incidents or no indicators that it could occur in your specific circumstances, then you are likely on solid ground.

However, if you ignored something that has caused problems in the past or that your experience tells you is possible, then it will be difficult to argue it was not foreseeable.

Ultimately, the law expects competence and diligence, not clairvoyance.

Balancing Practicality and Proportionality

Foreseeability and proportionality go hand in hand.

You cannot eliminate all risk, but you can prioritise controls where they will have the greatest effect.

Focus your effort on:

  • risks with the potential for real harm
  • hazards that suit your event profile and activities
  • control measures that are achievable and meaningful

That balance defines a realistic, defensible Risk Assessment.

Turning Foresight into Action

Once you have identified reasonably foreseeable risks, the next step is control. This can typically involve:

  • design or engineering changes
  • adjustments to site layout
  • administrative controls such as signage or stewarding
  • enhanced training or communication
  • improved emergency plans

This is where foresight becomes practical safety management.

Bringing It All Together

Identifying reasonably foreseeable risks is both a skill and a mindset.

It comes from knowing your event, learning from past experience and applying sound professional judgement.

If you can reasonably predict that something could go wrong, it belongs in your Risk Assessment. If you cannot confidently explain why a risk is unlikely or not relevant to your event, it should be included in your assessment.

For a deeper look at how to build your wider Risk Assessment framework, you can read our guide: Event Risk Assessments: Your Essential Guide to Safe Events.